Transparency
Our Data Sources
Every number on this site is traceable. Below is every data point we cite, where it came from, and how confident we are in it.
📊 Market Sizing (9 sources)
Derived from Census CBP 2023 establishment counts × $29–$49/mo subscription price
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cbp.html Accessed: March 2026Uses employer establishments only. Including nonemployer (self-employed) would increase the count 2-3x but those are less likely to pay for software.
U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 238
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=238&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 23822
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=23822&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 23821
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=23821&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 56173
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=56173&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 23832
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=23832&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 23816
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=23816&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023 — NAICS 238
https://api.census.gov/data/2023/cbp?get=ESTAB,EMP,NAICS2017_LABEL&for=us:*&NAICS2017=238&LFO=001 Accessed: March 2026GM Insights, Construction Accounting Software Market Report 2025–2034 (free excerpt)
Full report behind paywall. CAGR cited from free landing page summary.
🔍 Competitive Intelligence (7 sources)
Intuit QuickBooks pricing page
https://quickbooks.intuit.com/pricing/ Accessed: March 2026FreshBooks pricing page
https://www.freshbooks.com/pricing Accessed: March 2026ServiceTitan pricing page + G2 reviews
https://www.g2.com/products/servicetitan/pricing Accessed: March 2026TechCrunch reporting on Bench shutdown
https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/27/bench-shuts-down/ Accessed: March 2026Crunchbase — Kick
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/kick-financial Accessed: March 2026Crunchbase — Jobber
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/jobber Accessed: March 2026Benchmarked from bookkeeper hourly rates ($20–40/hr × 10hr/mo) on Indeed/Glassdoor
Range, not a single data point. Varies by region and complexity.
💰 Financial Model (7 sources)
Financial model — weighted average of Solo ($99), Crew ($149) tiers at estimated mix
No external validation. Based on competitor pricing as ceiling.
Benchmarked from OpenAI API pricing + Plaid per-connection cost + hosting estimates
Plaid: $0.30–0.50/connection. OpenAI: ~$0.003/transaction. Hosting: sublinear scale.
Financial model — ARPU minus COGS. Realized margin likely lower (72%) after churn and support costs.
PE Firm flagged: 91% is per-user steady state. Blended realized margin ~72% after free trials, support, payment failures.
Financial model — LTV $1,548 ÷ CAC $85. Assumes 3% monthly churn (optimistic for new brand).
PE Firm challenged: at 5% churn (more realistic for Year 1), LTV:CAC drops to 8.2:1. Still healthy.
Financial model — blended paid ($150) + organic ($20) acquisition cost at estimated channel mix
Financial model — fixed costs ÷ contribution margin per user
Feasibility analysis — estimated for experienced full-stack developer. Plaid approval may add weeks.
⚖️ Regulatory & Legal (3 sources)
Attorney fee ranges for GLBA information security program — based on fintech legal marketplace
Includes written risk assessment, security policies, incident response plan.
Regulatory analysis — sum of GLBA, CFPB 1033, trademark, ToS/privacy legal review
PE Firm flagged: Financial Model originally showed $950–$5,000 seed. True minimum is $20K–$35K with compliance.
Industry benchmarks from Vanta, Drata, and SOC 2 audit firm pricing
💬 Customer Voice (2 sources)
Reddit r/electricians — multiple threads on bookkeeping frustration
https://www.reddit.com/r/electricians/ Accessed: March 2026Paraphrased from multiple threads. Sentiment consistent across r/electricians, r/plumbing, r/HVAC.
Triangulated from Reddit forums, SBA small business data, and QuickBooks market share reports
PE Firm rated this Medium confidence — not from a primary survey. But even at 20%, that is 300K+ businesses.
🔧 Technical (2 sources)
Plaid pricing documentation
https://plaid.com/pricing/ Accessed: March 2026Estimated from Supabase Pro ($25/mo) + Plaid + OpenAI API usage at projected transaction volume
Methodology
This analysis was produced by the NLT Labs PE Pipeline — an AI-powered research system that evaluates startup ideas through five independent research agents (Market, Competitive, Feasibility, Financial, Regulatory) followed by a PE Firm evaluation and Devil's Advocate review.
Our data standard: Every quantitative claim is classified as Cited (verifiable source), Estimated (derived from cited data), or Assumed (model projection). We use U.S. Census Bureau data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and SEC filings as primary sources. Market sizing estimates are cross-referenced against at least two independent sources when available.
What we don't have: We do not currently subscribe to paid industry databases (IBISWorld, Statista, PitchBook). Some market size figures rely on free excerpts from research firms. Where we can't verify a number, we label it honestly.
Last updated: March 2026
Primary Government Sources
Free, authoritative data sources used across all NLT Labs research:
U.S. Census Bureau — County Business Patterns
Business establishment counts by NAICS industry (2023)
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment, wages, consumer spending, price indices
Bureau of Economic Analysis
GDP by industry, personal income, consumer spending
FRED (Federal Reserve)
800,000+ economic time series
SEC EDGAR
Public company filings, S-1s, 10-Ks
SBA Office of Advocacy
Small business statistics, failure rates
Found an error? Have a better source?
bill@nltlabs.ai →